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As cranes disappear ...

As cranes disappear from office development sites in central London the question is what are the triggers needed to start the next cycle of development. This comes down to supply and demand.

In the first half of 2010 take-up in central London was a healthy 5.7m sq ft, slightly up on the 5.6m sq ft of deals done in the second half of 2009 and comfortably ahead of the 3.2m sq ft of deals recorded in the first half of 2009.

The financial services sector has the most active with nearly 2m sq ft of office space taken up, followed by 690,000 sq ft taken by professional services firms and 330,000 sq ft by insurance companies.

In terms of area the City of London accounted for nearly 2.6m sq ft of the office space taken up, with Midtown take-up being 1m sq ft, and the take up in Docklands 700,000 sq ft. The West End managed a relatively slender 1.3m sq ft of space taken.

New requirements for office space in central London during the first half of 2010, amounted to around 4.1m sq ft, just ahead of levels in 2009.

So far in the second half of 2010 office deals continue apace as firms take advantage of rent deals. However, for the few remaining ‘iconic’ office buildings In the City of London and West End rents now seem to be be on an upward path.

The amount of available Grade A (newly completed or refurbished) office space in central London peaked in autumn 2009, with 12m sq ft being available in the City and 8m sq ft in the West End. Since then the take up of office space has reduced by 17%, with the amount of space available being 9.5m sq ft in the City and 7.5m in the West End. In total this is gives an availability to stock ratio of just over 7%, a fairly healthy level, when a ‘normal’ market is seen as being a ratio of 5%.

A reducing amount of office space, prospects of rising rents, and demand holding up, are the key signals for office construction starting again. Developers are already busy dusting off plans and clearing sites in anticipation of starts in 2011. The only thing holding things back may be development finance.

Andy King

Subscribe now - (10-09-2010)

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