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London Offices – An Olympic Year?

Central London - a Sack Full of Refurbs

Kings Cross start

Fenchurch revision supported

Start for SE1 scheme

Willis wants more

WSP lined up for 'shard'

Office Futures: London, Paris, Frankfurt

London looks set to trounce Paris (and Frankfurt) in terms of office development activity over the next three years, which is bound to rekindle old rivalries. Hopefully this ‘win’ will be repeated in this weeks England v France game, and the findings set the scene for a lively MIPIM property event in Cannes.

London and Paris have both seen a substantial contraction in the levels of office development over the last two-years and an upsurge in office take-up in 2010, which has eaten into available space.

London is heading for a sharp revival in office completions from 2012 onwards, while the Paris market appears to be looking at a slower recovery at the moment. In Frankfurt, like most other European cities, office completions peaked in 2010 and a continued slowing over the next two years is anticipated.

This London revival is in contrast to the start of the last property cycle, which saw major office developments in Paris kick-off at least nine-month before London. This time around London is ahead, and at least eight major office schemes are expected to start construction by spring 2011.

Any reports of new office construction in central Paris are sparse at present, although office shortages will develop and lead to an increase in development activity, particularly refurbishment. In Frankfurt there is an oversupply of new office space and the high proportion of vacant (and unlettable) older space means refurbishment, rather than new build, is likely in the short-term.

Looking ahead, we foresee that the development cycle in London will prove to be about 12 months ahead of Paris, with construction activity rising sharply in London in 2011, followed by the start of an upswing in Paris in 2012.

The predicted levels of office development activity to 2013 are however, still relatively low, and likely to produce a severe demand and supply imbalance (for quality space) in both London and Paris. It is expected that development activity will continue to increase to meet demand, with the peak of the next development boom being 2014-2015.






- (22-02-2011)

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Surge in London Office Development

London Office Prospects 2011: 75m sq ft of lease expiry hopes drives market forward

A surge in London office development is coming, with major office buildings planned to come on-stream in 2012-2015 to meet an anticipated increase in demand.

This demand is expected to come from those occupiers, which took space in the mid 1980’s boom and early 1990’s, with leases coming to an end on what is now outdated space.

Our research on occupier ‘moves’ in central London indicates a potential of up to 17m sq ft of lease renewals due in 2011, and an average of about 15m sq ft a year of lease expiries a year up to 2015.

The question is “How much of this lease expiry-led ‘demand’ will result in new space being taken-up?”

The London office market is fairly consistent on office space take-up with the average being about 10m sq ft a year over the last decade. In these terms 2010 was above average with over 11m sq ft of office space taken-up, the majority in large pre-lets.

If half of lease expiries (say 7.5m sq ft) each year actually turned into office ‘moves’, this would then mean a further 2.5m+ sq ft of office demand would have to come from existing occupier expansion and new ‘start-ups’ to achieve even the average for annual take-up.

This would then mean occupiers would be renewing leases on around 7.5m sq ft of office space each year with the potential for refurbishment deals. In addition the 7.5m sq ft (or possibly more) of office space vacated by ‘movers’ could be returned to building owners and would need to be upgraded for letting.

To meet the expected lease expiry-led office demand a substantial supply of new Grade A development is needed in 2011, which is not going to arrive. Those occupiers with imminent lease expiries will be unable to find prime new office space and will therefore postpone moves, increasingly turn to pre-lets, or remain ‘in-situ’ and refurbish.

In 2011 development starts will be numerous (30+ is possible) but take-up is expected to be down on 2010 levels and the majority deals are likely to be smaller, perhaps under 4,645 sq m (50,000 sq ft).

The ‘volume’ of deals done in late 2010, combined with about 46,450 sq m (500,000 sq ft) of office space now under offer, will carry the fit-out market through to summer 2011. The office market will then become one of refurbishment and restacking until a new wave of occupiers starts to take up the developments coming on-stream from late 2012 onwards.





- (01-02-2011)

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London Offices – 2011, Looking Up

The central London property market seems to be at a turning point in terms of construction activity. It would seem that we are at the start of the next development cycle, with the prospect of major office projects starting in 2011.

CityOffices constantly reviews London’s office development projects. The latest ‘Skyline Monitor’ shows that a total of 11 schemes started on site during summer 2010. Schemes such as The Pinnacle in the City, 62 Buckingham Gate, SW1, and Park House in Oxford Street, W1, added a further 1.3m sq ft to office space under construction.

The current total office space under construction in London is 4.2m sq ft, comprising 2.4m in the City; 1.1m sq ft in the West End, 600,000 sq ft on the Southbank and 130,000 sq ft in Midtown.

The 4.2m under construction at present is low when compared to the 13m sq ft under construction two years ago, but does compares favourably with the mere five office schemes started this time last year.

This summer nearly 5.8m sq ft of offices were completed in schemes such as Minerva’s St Botolphs building, EC3; Derwent’s Angel Building, EC1; and Standard Life’s 95 Gresham Street, EC2. A number of lettings have been secured in these buildings and currently half of the 5.8m sq ft has been let, in line with the overall sharp reduction in prime office space available in central London.

CityOffices has identified 21 London office projects where demolition is either underway or the site has been cleared. It is anticipated that starts on around half of these before Christmas 2010, which could result in a further 1.5m sq ft of offices under construction by the New Year.



Looking forward to 2011, Cityoffices is currently tracking 110 office schemes in central London totaling over 22m sq ft, which have planning permission, and where the developer is thought to be considering a start in 2011. The short-list of developers lining up schemes to start next year includes British Land, Land Securities, Great Portland Estates, Helical Bar, and Exemplar.

The reason behind the increasing activity in central London is that Grade A office space availability is expected to hit a low point in late 2014 and rents are already rising to reflect shortages of prime space. Developers are keen to catch the next property ‘wave’ before it peaks and are trying to push ahead with developments. In reality not all these schemes will start but Cityoffices is tracking them all to identify the ‘winning’ development teams. - (19-11-2010)

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More London 7!

A new phase of the More London development is being planned. More London 7 will provide approximately 37,175 sq m (400,000 sq ft) of office space over 10 floors and include an unspecified amount of retail as well. A detailed planning application has yet to be submitted and no work will begin without a substantial pre-let. The development team remains the same as on previous More London projects. - (18-03-2005)

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Ericsson to move European HQ

Ericsson is to move its London-based operations from its current regional office at 1 St James's Square, London SW1 to 105 Wigmore Street, London W1. The telecoms company is thought to have taken about 2,601 sq m (28,000 sq ft) in the top four floors. The move is being made as a consequence of the ongoing "Efficiency program" in the company and was taken after Ericsson reduced its London-based workforce from more than 100 to around 70 staff. It is said that the move will "substantially lower costs". The London offices deals with treasury and vendor finance, strategic global HR operations, and communications functions such as investor relations and marketing and sales operations. - (24-08-2001)

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